Leveraging Forecasting Techniques in UX Research
Recently, a fellow researcher asked me whether I had used forecasting research techniques from my tenure at the Institute for the Future (IFTF) in my career as a User experience researcher (UXR). I worked at IFTF from 2005 to 2010, a renowned forecasting research firm located in Palo Alto, California. During those five years, my role as a forecasting researcher involved conducting in-depth studies to forecast future trends, spanning time horizons ranging from 3 to 10 years.
There is a lot that UXRs can learn from forecasters. Let me delve into how UXRs can adopt forecasting techniques to enhance their strategic research. Drawing from my own experience, I’ll highlight key forecasting methodologies that I have used as a UXR to propel product strategy in various companies.
1. Focusing on extreme users to understand technology diffusion
Before we delve into how conducting research with Extreme Users can drive product innovation and strategy, it’s essential to understand the concept of extreme users. The Diffusion of Innovation (DOI) Theory, propounded by E.M. Rogers in 1962, provides a foundation for this understanding. The theory explains how an idea or product gains acceptance and spreads within a society. Crucially, it identifies different user categories, from early adopters to the broader market.
Extreme users, located at the beginning of the adoption curve, are a small but vital segment. They are innovators and early adopters who possess amplified characteristics of your target audience. Often unknowingly, they act as early adopters, setting trends and influencing others.
When you design something well for the extremes users it has a positive impact on the majority as well. Oxo the beloved kitchen tools manufacturer is a case in point. The owner designed the Oxo peeler for his wife who had arthritis and wanted a more comfortable vegetable peeler. Turns out everyone wanted a more comfortable vegetable peeler, and Oxo became a household name that it is today.
When I worked at Samsung, we conducted a project on the changing American family and its implications for product design. We interviewed several Americans who had family arrangements that were clearly not the norm in America. Think of them as early adopters of new types of living arrangements, for example adult grandchildren and grandparents living under the same roof. The insights helped us create a product portfolio for the future needs of Americans.
When I worked at Wikipedia, I did ethnographic research in US, India and Brazil for the redesign of Wikipedia’s mobile app. We decided to recruit few extreme users in our research. We wanted to uncover new use cases and design opportunities. We recruited a power user of Wikipedia in Salvador in Brazil. He spent hours reading Portuguese and English Wikipedia. He primarily read Portuguese Wikipedia, but since Portuguese Wikipedia was not mature at that time, he used English Wikipedia as a reference point to get more information on an article.
This helped us uncover a use case of improving discoverability of articles in other languages. Wikipedia’s mobile app launched inter-language Wiki links so users could easily discover articles in other languages and even when you search for an article search results show what other language is the article available in.
Researching Extreme Users: Best Practices
Procedure: Ethnography reigns supreme. Through semi-structured interviews and observations, researchers can glean insights. It’s recommended to have these sessions one-on-one to avoid peer-influenced responses. Typically, interviewing around 12 extreme users will highlight recurring issues and streamlining the research process.
Benefits of Extreme Users: They offer a well of insights in a short span. Their heightened needs, willingness to experiment, and knack for finding solutions make them invaluable.
2. Expert Workshops: A Collaborative Approach
A common technique among forecasters is expert workshops. These workshops involve bringing a diverse set of experts together to identify market, socio-cultural and technological trends, shifts, and future predictions. Think of it as a Design Thinking workshop, but with experts. Such insights can enable UXRs to provide informed recommendations for decision-making, especially early in the product lifecycle.
While at IFTF, I was involved in several expert workshops. These workshops congregated experts from diverse fields, facilitating a holistic view of the problem at hand. The structure resembles affinity mapping sessions familiar to UXRs.
An instance from my tenure at SuccessFactors, which makes HR software, illustrates the method’s efficacy for UX research. We convened experts on organizational change and HR to discern trends in goal-setting and performance management. The insights gathered identified a shift towards continuous performance management and informed our product strategy, leading to a successful product launch.
Expert Workshops: Best Practices
Procedure: After introductions, a brainstorming session ensues. Each participant notes down factors they foresee affecting their field in the next decade. These factors are then shared, discussed, and clustered thematically to identify trends that will shape the future. In today’s digital era, platforms like Figjam, Miro, and Mural simplify this process.
Best Practices: It’s extremely important to invite experts from diverse fields. It’s also a good strategy to invite those who might be peripheral to the field since they can provide an outside perspective. Have a good moderator who enables a safe and interactive environment so experts can build on each other’s ideas.
Here is the presentation from a talk I did on the subject at a design conference.
In conclusion, by adopting forecasting techniques, UXRs can supercharge their research earlier in the product life cycle, leading to more informed decisions and better product strategies. Whether tapping into the insights of extreme users or collaborating with experts, these methodologies provide a roadmap to success.
If you have used these techniques for UX research, please leave a comment and share.
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